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PRAISE SINGERS  GO TO "GREET" NEW  GMD NNPC

PRAISE SINGERS GO TO "GREET" NEW GMD NNPC

04 August 2019

If journalism is to have meaning, to fulfill its raison d'etre, then it must be about speaking truth to power; giving a voice to the voiceless. The National Chairman of...

IS IT A NIGERIAN GAS FLARE COMMERCIALISATION PROGRAM ?

IS IT A NIGERIAN GAS FLARE COMMERCIALISATION PROGRAM ?

31 July 2019

The Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) is a prime example of a project well concieved but poorly executed and unlikely to achieve most of its objectives despite its inherernt...

VR CAPITAL BUY 25% OF P&ID AS NIGERIA FACE $9BN FINE

VR CAPITAL BUY 25% OF P&ID AS NIGERIA FACE $9BN FINE

05 June 2019

First, a health warning. This article is about recalcitrant, inept and quite possibly corrupt Nigerian politicians and government ministers. It is certainly about incompetence and misconduct in public office. It...

DISASTER AS UNEMPLOYMENT LEAPS BY 30%  TO 20.9m

DISASTER AS UNEMPLOYMENT LEAPS BY 30% TO 20.9m

29 May 2019

Nigeria is sleepwalking into a disaster which has the potential to unleash instability, insecurity and crippling hardship. Unemployment is always a cause for concern, it is the clearest indication that...

 NIGERIA NGIGE UNDEREMPLOYED OR UNEMPLOYABLE?

NIGERIA NGIGE UNDEREMPLOYED OR UNEMPLOYABLE?

08 May 2019

Working on the assumption that the Minister of Labour and Employment, Senator Chris Ngige has not been misquoted it is difficult to understand his recent pronouncement and what now seems...

NIGERIA ANOTHER MOU ANOTHER DAY

NIGERIA ANOTHER MOU ANOTHER DAY

01 May 2019

Nigeria has announced ambitious plans to double its oil production by 2025, targetting 4 million bpd in six years’ . Maikanti Baru, Group Managing Director at the Nigerian National Petroleum...

NNPC REFINERY WOES 2019

NNPC REFINERY WOES 2019

24 April 2019

The Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, has not unpredictably, stated that Nigeria’s continuous subsidy of petrol consumption means the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) will...

NIGERIA OPEC STAND FIRM

NIGERIA OPEC STAND FIRM

28 March 2019

Nigeria and other member countries of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as their non-OPEC allies led by the Russian Federation have said they are committed to...

PALM OIL PRODUCTION UNDERPERFORMS

PALM OIL PRODUCTION UNDERPERFORMS

18 March 2019

PALM OIL PRODUCTION A MEAGRE PERFORMANCE Nigeria from gaining a substantial share of the global oil palm industry now worth $62 billion annually, casting doubts on government’s ability to grow...

NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION

NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION

18 March 2019

NIGERIA REFINING THE VISION Nigeria is the only OPEC member country that imports gasoline (PMS) and holds the dubious distinction of being the largest importer in the world. The Nigerian...

IS THE PGB FATALLY FLAWED?

IS THE PGB FATALLY FLAWED?

18 March 2019

IS THE PIGB FATALLY FLAWED? Ten years after the Petroleum Industry Bill began its tortuous odyssey which has included the Bill being broken into four portions, both houses of the...

CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS

CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS

18 March 2019

CBN PUMP UP THE T-BILLS The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plans to raise a total of N1.809 trillion from the debt market, in the first quarter of 2019.This is...

TIN EXPORTS NIGERIA

TIN EXPORTS NIGERIA

17 March 2019

TIN EXPORT NIGERIA Synterra are able to export high grade tin ore from Nigeria. We agregate the Mining production of a number of artisanal miners and consolidate volumes for exportSynterra...

BERYLLIUM MINING OPPORTUNITIES

BERYLLIUM MINING OPPORTUNITIES

17 March 2019

The Nigeria Solid Mineral and Mining Sector has in effect made the great leap forward which will now allow investors to take advantage of the vast mineral potential Nigeria possess....

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Monday, 24 June 2019 22:40

WILL TRUMP SANCTION AND MAXIMUM PRESSURE STOP IRAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM?

Written by

How likely are Iran to come to the negotiating table with increased sanctions and maximum pressure. The drama surrounding the cancelled US military strike is classic President Donald Trump replete with contradictions, threats and out right misinformation. It was reminiscent of an episode of the FOX hit Series 24. Ultimately at the moment of truth for  the US President, we are asked to believe that after he belatedly found out the probable casualty figures, he cancelled the strike. All this after threatening the complete obliteration of Iran.  He claims that a casualty toll  of 150 would have been disproportionate. There are many reasons such an excuse is ridiculous. What is frustrating is that the single truth we know beyond doubt is that he is not telling it.

If proportionality was an issue, the US had a variety of options, it could have targeted 2 sites instead of 3, could have employed different ordinance or  chosen different targets. The targets they chose were military targets which shot down their drone, so in a legal sense proportionality does not even come into it.

It is difficult not to draw the conclusion that his explanation which made no sense was a narcissistic indulgence, that Trump never really had any serious intention to respond militarily but was required to be seen to do so because Iran had called his bluff. The policy of maximum pressure will have envisaged the Iran military response as a likely outcome. It is farcical let alone bemusing, that Trump who has shown little refrain in going after ISIS and Syria to now seek to apply proportionality in a context where it is not applicable.

 

Iran has been embolden because their shrewd calculation has been proven  to be true. They know the last thing Trump wants or needs now is a war. A war with Iran would be more to do with who is able to endure the most pain and it would set the Middle East alight. There are those in Iran who are prepared to shed blood. There are hawks in the Trump administration that would welcome such a conflict too, the Commander-in-Chief is not one of them. It would put paid to his 2020 bid.

Whist Trump seems to be playing poker with a poor hand, the Iranians are playing chess at a high level. The shooting down of the US spy plane has sparked a wave of euphoria around Iran, pride even in economically hard times and given many Iranians a lift. It was a calculated risk but it sent a powerful message to Washington.  They believe they have demonstrated the ability to overcome US technology which to some extent will force the US to reconsider their military strategy. Retaliation can only be effective if it is carried out without the further loss of planes.

When it eventually emerged that  the US had launched a Cyber attack on Iranian military assets it seemed more like an acquittal than a reprisal. “They try hard, but have not carried out a successful attack,” Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, Iran’s minister for information and communications technology, said on Twitter.

The Trump playbook is very thin, he has attempted to reach out to the Iranians in his 'stick and carrot' maximum pressure mode. He has announced new sanctions to be extended to the Supreme Leader in an attempt to force Iran to the negotiating table. The Iranian Ambassador to the UN however made it clear

 " We are not in the business in succumbing to pressure. The US has been applying pressure against Iran and today we witnessed that they have added more sanctions, so nobody in a clear mind can accept to have a dialogue with somebody that is threatening you with more sanctions. So as long as this threat is there, there is no way that Iran and the US can start a dialogue."

The US special representative for Iran, Brian Hook went to Europe to explain US policy and  has  told European reporters  that Trump was willing to sit down with Iran, but that Iran must do a deal before sanctions could be lifted. Trump has always  argued that  the JCPOA,  did not go far enough, and new sanctions are needed to force Iran back to the table to make more concessions.

Trumps unilateral action has had the effect of strengthening the hand of Iranian hardliners whilst weakening pragmatic Iranian internationalists. It is hard to see how the impasse might be broken. The wisdom of piling up meaningless sanctions on the Iranian leadership is dubious.

But of course this is his predecessor President Obamas fault, he created the current crisis by employing diplomacy and by creating consensus. One can only speculate on the role the obsession President Trump has for  repudiating everything Obama played. There can be no ambiguity in Trumps motive in respect of Obama. The US President sees himself as a great deal maker and seems to relish the prospect of one on one negotiations. Yet there seems to be a lack of subtly and understanding that any wider deal will likely require greater concessions on both sides and will need to resolve long standing issues between regional actors who need to have a voice in the outcome.

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