The Iranian foreign ministry described the drone as a provocation and by shooting it down they were sending a clear message to the US. Whatever the Iranian intention was in shooting down the Drone they have ensured the film whose ending we have all anticipated moves to the next chapter. If it were a movie it would be perhaps the most rotten of all rotten tomatoes we will see. We woke up this morning to recriminations and the first but unlikely the last exchange between the US and Iran.
The Iranians have shot down a US Navy MQ-4C Triton drone. the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security council almost jubilantly reiterated , "Our airspace is our red line and Iran has always responded and will continue to respond strongly to any country that violates our airspace," he goaded without actually mentioning the US by name. Part of the reason for the jubilation was undoubtedly the Iranian capability to track down the drone and destroy it. The highly sophisticated drone is a $130 million ticket and downing it ranks alongside the U2" that was bought down in the 1960's
This action comes amid heightened tension in the wake of the attacks on oil tankers off Oman last week. The US and its regional allies - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) - have accused Iran of being behind these attacks with the US supporting the allegations with intellegance.
The problem with US Intelligence reports is they are largely viewed with skepticism. History and revealations as far back as the Gulf of Tonkin undermined their
credibility especially where any a priori interpretation of events clearly repudiates their veracity. The US have belatedly produced 'photographic evidence to
substantiate their allegation yet it is hardly overwhelming. The general sentiment is of Deja vu, with the purported evidence deemed a pretext to justify escalating
maximum pressure on Iran. Crucially the shot down US Navy MQ-4C Triton drone flies real-time intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) over vast ocean
and coastal regions, providing continuous maritime surveillance. Iran maintains the drone was shot down when it entered Iran's airspace near the Kouhmobarak
district in the south. After initially denying the report the US Navy confirmed a MQ-4C Triton drone was brought down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile but in
international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz and therein lies the problem. The US will maintain that the drone was in international airspace and as such the Iranian action was yet another malign and unprovoked attack. Already Trump has tweeted the action was a big mistake. It is now highly likely with the US media beating the drum of war we will see an imminent, possibly surgical strke on key Iranian infrastructure. Putin has already warned that such an action would be a catastrophe. It could be similar to the strike carried out in Syria, but Iran are not Syria. They have recently deployed a new surface to air missile system known as the Khordad 15 which reputedly has both stealth and cruise missile tracking capabilities. This could escalate very quickly
The downing of the drone is almost certainly part of an Iranian strategy to deny US surveillance capability in the Straites of Hormuz by limiting their capacity to track
Iranian naval assets in the region. The direction of travel is ominous and perhaps a precursor to increased Iranian activity in the Straites. Iran have made it clear in the
past that if they are unable to export their oil through the Straites, they would deny its use as a passage for any crude oil. The Iranian strategy is high risk as it is dependent on the US desire to aviod all out war which could turn out to be a grave miscalculation.
The Iranians strategy initially seemed to be to drive a wedge between the US who abandoned the JCPOA and the other signatories of the agreement, especially the
Europeans. However the Iranians have made it clear that the longer the sanctions continue and the other signatories to the JCPOA are unprepared to shield Iran from
the effects, the more Iran will abrogate its obligations under the JCPOA. Iran has already put the other signatories of the deal on notice by setting a deadline of 27th
June by which it will breach limits on uranium stockpiles set out in the nuclear deal, at which point the deal would effectively lapse.
President Trump has stated he is ready to talk to Iranian leaders and was not seeking regime change, this is however at odds with his national security adviser.
Pompeo also recalibrated his earlier position that the United States would not lift sanctions on Iran unless it complied with a dozen sweeping demands, suggesting that those demands could be part of negotiations instead of preconditions. Washington appears to be trying to walk a tightrope on Iran policy. Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a war, yet his top foreign policy officials are pressing him to amplify a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran that relies on sanctions and the threat of military force. This approach seems characteristic of Trump's destructive disorder modus where he creates a broad policy objective without a co-ordinated approach from departments of government resulting in strategic dissonance and incoherence.
The Iranians on their part have made it clear in a statement after the visit of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, they have no interest in negotiating with Washington. Indeed the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directly addressed US policy in comments made on May 29: “When you do not use your pressure tools and your pressure leverage, [the enemy’s] mind is at ease.” Tehran’s only option, he concluded, was using its own “pressure tools” in response.
Lest it be forgotten the sanctions not only seek to arrest Iran's capability to develop and deploy nuclear weapons but restrict its "malign" influence in the Middle East. Given that Iran is a Shiite theocracy seeking to export its revolution and empower Shiite groups in the region the only conceivable way it can comply with US
demands is to repudiate it own Islamic revolution and raison d' etre . The Iranian involvement in backing militias in war-torn Yemen and Syria, and Hezbollah, a Shiite
paramilitary group and political party in Lebanon, is their method of countering the influence of the Saudis, Israel and the US in the Middle East. There is no possibility
Iran will comply with that demand and therein lies the difficulty.
The "Maximum Pressure" policy has accelerated the process and made conflict between the 2 protagonists almost inevitable. It has allowed the Hawks in the US and
the Radicals in the Iran National Council to sieze control of the narrative. The other signatories to the JCPOA, that is the Europeans are technically in breach of the
Agreement as a consequence of them observing US sanctions. The Chinese and Russians have castigated the US for unilaterally pulling out ot the agreement with
the Chinese likely to continue to trade with Iran which is a big market for it. The onus really falls on the europeans to keep the Iranians in the deal by observing their
obligations under the agreement.
